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Insights

A New Trump Administration & You

In light of the fairly significant changes wrough by the recent US elections, the below represents what I perceive to be possible clouds on the horizon–
 
 
1) Immediate Threat (< 1yr.)
 
Scenario: Imposition of Protectionist Tariffs
Any administration has wide latitude in imposing trade tariffs, without counterbalancing “interference” from the other two branches.  Given the president-elect’s “transactional” reputation towards policy-making, I strongly suspect we will likely see the erection of trade barriers, not dissimilar to what was done during the first term when tariffs were imposed on goods valued at approximately $380 billion in 2018 and 2019, 
 
Any student of Econ. 101 knows that consumers pay the ultimate price under a trade war, as they bear the brunt of heighted costs relating to supply chain distruptions and retaliatory tariffs.
 
 
2) Longer-Term Threat (>1 yr.)
 
Scenario: Higher Interest Rate Environment
The 2017 tax cuts have resulted in increases in the overall US national debt; by one measure, $1T – $2T will have been added to the debt load when some provisions sunset next year.  With at least control of the US Senate, if not the House as well, it is widely expected further tax cuts will be likely.  To fund any tax cuts through the issuance of more US Treasuries, there exists a distinct risk that rates will have to be higher to entice institutional buyers.
 
Notwithstanding this possibility, a plurality of the Street is still expecting a total rate cut of 0.75% between now and the end of 2025.  This apparent disconnect is beyond the purview of this quick note.
 
Mitigating Factor(s)?
Inherently, it’s extremely difficult to speculate on interest rates, especially when trying to predict beyond the 1-year timeframe.  Furthermore, this sustained, higher rate scenario is predicated upon the premise of additional tax cuts/fiscal stimuli, the details of which are non-existent at present.  Finally, the Federal Reserve has the tools to blunt, at least partially, expansionary fiscal measures through its operations.
 
We will be paying closer attention in light of these unknowns.  As always, I stand ready to provide a more bespoke analysis of how the above may impact your particular situation.

Initial Thoughts on Results of US Elections

It appears the GOP has won both the Presidency and US Senate, with control over the House remaining up in the air.  Notwithstanding the incomplete results, here’re some initial takes on potential implications for your personal finances:
 
TAXES: Some key provisions of the 2017 tax cuts (eg. lower income tax rates, higher estate tax & standard deduction amounts) will likely be extended, beyond its sunset date of 2025;
 
BUSINESS: Dealmaking would probably accelerate, given the expected lessening of regulatory oversight;
 
EQUITIES: A positive bias owards further gains in US equities, especially now that the overhang over election uncertainties has been lifted;
 
INFLATION: Economic policies (whether as they relate to taxation or USA-first trade policies) would most likely add to inflation.  To what extent the Federal Reserve can counteract against expansionary pressures will impact Street expectations of Fed rate cuts over the next year;
 
GEOPOLITICS: Given the incoming Administration’s image of a more “transactional” approach towards foreign policy, the risks of unexpected US trajectory can’t be ignored.
 
Kindly note this caveat– the above observations are subject to revision to the extent that campaign rhetoric may prove quite different from actual governance.  In either case, I remain ready & available to examine how any of the above may impact your positioning towards goals, both near- and longer-term.

Do You Know Where Your Money Is?

A Cautionary Tale of Counterparty Risks

Over the past 15 years, the increasing ubiquitousness of financial technology (“fintech”) —  including mobile payments, digital currencies, blockchain, and peer-to-peer lending, just to name a few — has heralded a new era of how people manage their money.  Such innovations, spearheaded by non-bank entities, have afforded consumers convenience, efficiency, accessibility, and choice.  Against this backdrop of an ever-evolving landscape, brick-and-mortar institutions and government regulators alike have been busy playing catch-up, as walls around the traditional financial and banking system become progressively deconstructed.

Notwithstanding the aforementioned benefits wrought by fintech, the recent collapse of Synapse, a little-known middleware firm whose services allowed other businesses to embed banking services into their own offering, illustrates the fragility of the fintech ecosystem.  While the extent of the bankruptcy’s cascading impact remains to be fully revealed, a recent report suggested that more than100,000 fintech customers, with $265 million in deposits, have been locked out of their accounts since mid-May.  Furthermore, consumers should be aware that when opening an account with a non-bank entity, such deposits may not be protected by the FDIC coverage.

Do you know your counterparty risks when placing your hard-earned dollars?

SEIZING THE INITIATIVE

 

YEAR-END THOUGHTS, PART 2

On a recent social Zoom call, a friend offered a stark reminder of the scope of this pandemic’s tragedy— total US Covid deaths are now more than 100 times the fatalities suffered on 9/11.  As a fellow New Yorker present in the City at that time, I had to take pause, unsure whether anyone can ever fully appreciate the impact on over 300,000 families across this country. It seems our daily compass vacillates between a collective sense of sadness and one of nagging frustration with recalcitrant attitudes towards public health measures.  Compounding this mental fog, the nation’s ongoing political discord has proved difficult for most to ignore.

 

Given this onslaught of unprecedented factors, it is not surprising that one may fall prone to cynicism and inaction.  To break with this loop of unproductive feedback, I believe a reorientation towards an internal locus of control is critical.  Indeed, a renewed perspective is essentially the “holy grail” of my year-end meetings with clients—focusing on retooling financial variables within their control, after listening with deliberate intent about their worries and wishes.

 

So, what should be on this “call-to-action” list as we look towards the New Year? 

 

  • Protection: On top of the thorough review of estate planning documents referenced in Part 1, 2020 illustrates moreover the importance of having various types of insurance to hedge against unforeseen risks;
  • Cash Flow: In a year when millions have lost employment, it pays to ensure the adequacy of the “rainy day” account, and to reassess monthly expenses vs. income. Only when there is positive cash flow can one hope to build assets;
  • Taxes: In addition to the usual tax-loss harvesting exercise at year-end, tactical and strategic planning opportunities may exist as a result of the 2019 SECURE Act (e.g., how to mitigate the required 10-year distribution rule for non-spouse beneficiaries of tax-deferred retirement accounts), and 2020 CARES Act (e.g., for those who took distributions or loans from retirement plans as a result of Covid hardships);
  • Growth: Given the market’s gyrations, it is also essential to examine whether the overall asset allocation has deviated from your appropriate positioning such that these accounts warrant rebalancing;
  • Charity: Taxpayers can take advantage of a one-time “above-the-line” deduction of up to $300 for cash donations to eligible charities, in 2020, and consider donating appreciated stocks to minimize capital gains. For those interested in engaging in philanthropy on a sustained basis, one increasingly popular vehicle is donor advised funds

 

Happy Holidays, and, in the inestimably motivational words of Grandmaster Yoda:

“Do. Or Do Not. There’s No Try.”

Tony Hsieh’s Reminder

 

YEAR-END THOUGHTS, PART 1

As we fast approach year’s end, the daily rhythm of our lives seems hijacked by an ever growing checklist– charitable giving decisions, gathering ingredients for that “one” holiday recipe from childhood, and posting holiday greetings, just to name a few.

 

Yet, more so than years past, one’s particularly drawn to take careful stock of 2020, even as we all eagerly await 2021.  It is in this spirit of introspection that I share the poignant implications of the death of Tony Hsieh, the Taiwanese American founder/ex-CEO of Zappos.  According to one report, Hsieh, who passed recently at age 46, left behind an estate of $800MM without a will, thus forcing his family to sort out the entangled legal web.

 

Undoubtedly, Hsieh’s example is an extreme one.  

 

It is, however, no less useful in illustrating the importance of estate planning documents in any financial planning, before you contemplate any other aspects of your financial life.  Even if you’re way ahead on this curve, dust off those documents to ensure they remain valid in reflecting your current wishes.  If nothing else, 2020 should have taught each of us “black swan” events are perhaps not as exotic as one may have thought.